AP Statistics / Unit 2: Probability, Random Variables, and Probability Distributions
2.3 Estimating Probabilities Using Simulation
Notes
A simulation imitates a random process to estimate probability.
- State the model, assign digits or use a random generator, run many trials, and find the proportion of successes.
- More trials give better estimates (law of large numbers).
Practice
To simulate a 30% chance, assign digits:
Need 3 of 10 equally likely digits.
18 of 200 simulated trials were successes. Estimated probability:
$\displaystyle \frac{18}{200}$.
The law of large numbers says that with more trials, the proportion of successes:
Long-run relative frequency.
Ready for more? Take the Unit 2 test.